Göteborg Film Festival’s 7th Nostradamus Report – ”A Creative Explosion” – was presented January 31 at a seminar during Nordic Film Market. The annual report, written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen, looks into the future of the screen industries 3-5 years from now through research and interviews with industry experts.

The report holds forth a near future where high quality, creativity and scripted content is king. A new wave of artistically outstanding feature filmmakers will offer opportunities for arthouse cinema to connect with younger audiences. Demand for gender and cultural diversification will continue, and the industry will next need to address the more complex pipeline problems affecting diverse recruitment.

Other themes discussed in the report are the consequences of the escalating streaming wars, alternative release patterns taking shape, and how the capacity issues caused by extreme demand on scripted content threaten quality. Streamers are also putting pressure on the traditional role of the producer, which may challenge cultural diversity down the line, especially as consolidations continue. Access to data analysis will be of increasing importance across roles in the industry.

Finally, the report discusses how emerging technologies – VR, deep fakes, game engines, etc – is causing fundamental changes in how audiovisual storytelling is produced and understood, with inevitable ripple effects on how audiences perceive the formats and platforms of film and TV as well.

The annual report is written by media analyst Johanna Koljonen.

The 2020 Nostradamus report interviewees are:

Lars Blomgren, Executive Producer and Head of Scripted EMEA, Endemol Shine Group
Anna Croneman, Head of Drama, SVT
Leon Forde, Managing Director, Olsberg SPI
Stine Helgeland, Head of Department Communications, Strategic Insight and International Relations, Norwegian Film Institute
Philip Knatchbull, CEO, Curzon Cinemas
Alexandra Lebret, Managing Director, European Producer’s Club
Fabio Lima, Founder & CEO, Sofa Digital
Alex Mahon, CEO, Channel 4
Susanna Snell, Head of Audience Insight, YLE
Bérénice Vincent, Co-founder Collectif 50/50 and sales agent, Totem Film

Following the presentation of the report, a panel discussion themed “The Future of Gender Parity and Inclusion” in connection to Göteborg Film Festival’s gender parity initiative 50/50 Vision was presented. Panel: Iram Haq, director (What will people say?, I Am Yours), Norway; Anna Serner, CEO, Swedish Film Institute, Sweden; Bérénice Vincent, Co-founder of Collectif 50/50, and co-founder, Totem Film, France; and Rhys Ernst, director/producer (Adam, Transparent) United States.
Moderated by Johanna Koljonen, media analyst and author of the Nostradamus report.

The report presentation and panel are available to watch at Kulturakademin’s K-play.

Nostradamus Report: A Creative Explosion can be downloaded here  

Editorial team: Johanna Koljonen, Cia Edström, Josef Kullengård

Editorial Advisory Board: Åsa Garnert, Tomas Eskilsson

The Nostradamus Project is founded and run by Göteborg Film Festival with support from and in collaboration with the project’s new main contributor Film i Väst. With additional support from Nordisk Film & TV Fond, Västra Götalandsregionen, Creative Europe/MEDIA and Kulturakademin.

How are the screen industries changing in the next 3-5 years?

The screen media are changing fast.

With production, distribution and consumption almost entirely digital, business models, audience behaviour and funding systems are in flux. New opportunities arise and old ways of thinking fall by the wayside, while the purpose of film remains the same. Regardless of format and platform, it is still all about moving the audience: sharing, entertaining, challenging, moving, uplifting.

The Nostradamus Project has as its mission to document and predict these changes on a 3-5 year horizon, and to present analysis in a manner that is equally comprehensible to producers and policymakers, stars and students. We do this through interviews with change-makers and people in strategic positions in the industry about what they are doing and creating today. Context is provided by the excellent research and journalism that is publicly available, but which you may be too busy to close read.

We have published five annual Nostradamus reports, on topics ranging from audience expectations to ad-blocking, from distribution to diversity, and from holdback windows to VR. The reports are free to download here; because of the scope, at least the last two tend to be up-to-date. In addition, we organize international seminars in Göteborg during the Nordic Film Market and in Cannes at the Marché du Film, Berlinale, too mention a few.

Nostradamus Project analysis has also been presented at film markets from Ghent to Rio, to film funds, and at meetings of for instance the EFADs Think Tank and the EFARN. The 7th annual Nostradamus report ”A Creative Explosion” was released on Jan 31, 2020. Click here to read it! 

The 8th Nostradamus report will be released during Nordic Film Market February 4, 2021. 

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Contact information

Cia Edström, Head of Nordic Film Market and Nostradamus, cia.edstrom@goteborgfilmfestival.se Johanna Koljonen, Nostradamus editor, johanna.koljonen@participation.design General Information: industry@goteborgfilmfestival.se